Critical Dates
CBA Expiration
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at 11:59 PM EST. After this moment, there is no legal framework for players to work. A lockout is expected immediately.
Expected Lockout Begins
If history is any guide, owners will lock out players the moment the CBA expires. This happened in 2021. Players cannot use team facilities, sign contracts, or conduct official business.
Spring Training Scheduled Start
Pitchers and catchers typically report in mid-February. If no deal is reached, spring training will be delayed or cancelled entirely.
Drop-Dead Date
This is roughly when a deal must be reached to avoid cancelling regular season games. In 2022, the deal was struck on March 10. Miss this window and games start getting cancelled.
Scheduled Opening Day
If everything goes smoothly (unlikely), the 2027 MLB season would begin in late March. Every day past the drop-dead date means more cancelled games.
What to Expect
Phase 1: Posturing (Now - Nov 2026)
Both sides stake out positions. Owners will emphasize "competitive balance" and the need for a salary cap. Players will talk about record revenues and owner profits. Little real negotiation happens—it's about setting expectations.
Phase 2: Initial Talks (Nov 2026)
As the deadline approaches, formal negotiations begin. Based on past patterns, don't expect breakthroughs. Both sides will test each other's resolve. Media coverage intensifies.
Phase 3: Lockout (Dec 2026 - ?)
The CBA expires. Owners lock out players. The Hot Stove freezes. No trades, no signings, no official baseball activities. Economic pressure builds on both sides—but especially on players who aren't being paid.
Phase 4: Endgame (Feb-Mar 2027)
With spring training and Opening Day at risk, real negotiations happen. Marathon sessions. Midnight deadlines. This is when deals get done—or don't. In 2022, a deal was reached March 10. In 1995, it took a federal judge.
The question isn't if there will be drama—it's whether both sides can reach a deal before games are lost. Given the salary cap fight ahead, many insiders believe this will be the longest and most contentious negotiation in baseball history.